Phendrana Drifts

Allie pointed out that if someone makes you their blog of the week, you should probably blog, and preferably within that week. So with that in mind, and to match the political nature of the blog in question, here is a post.

Alberta's political circles, and in particular my own little world is all a twitter (is that really a word?) about Premier Ralph Klein's recent announcement that all seeking his post must announce their intentions and cease being cabinet ministers (if they are cabinet ministers) by June 1, 2006. This is a pretty big deal, both in the micro level of how this impacts the race for the PC leadership and Alberta politics in general as well as the macro level of how unprecedented the length and drastic nature of the pronouncement.

Well, when I first heard it I couldn't believe it. I mean, I honestly thought I misheard the date, and that the Premier actually meant June 1, 2007 - which would still be a healthy eight month lead time from the expected and announced February 2008 finish line (although I suspect that October or Novemeber 2007 is still more realistic).

Typically, I trust - or perhaps more accurately am impressed by - the Premier's political acumen. By in large, I saw few political flaws in the guy, the accidental trip to a homeless shelter aside. Policy wise, well sure, I don't agree 100% with the government 100% of the time, but in the business of politics, no one can deny the guy had a nose for it. That was until 2004 when the Premier made a mistake that I believe is the result of all of this. He let it slip that the 2004 election would be his last.

In politics, when a first minister announces that he will leave, regardless of how far in the future that might be, the environment reacts in a variety of ways, some predictable, some unpredictable. A good example of predictable would be a bunch of "tirekickers" jostling for position at the top of the heap to replace the top dog. Unpredictable would be Jean Chretien's flurry of policies that were, well for lack of a better word, bold - decriminalization of marijuana, speeding up the legalization of same-sex marriage, musing about a guaranteed minimum income. Regardless of the nature of these concequences, we can say they are destablizing to the government and especially to the political party in power, especially when the hold on political power is particularly strong - like the Liberals in Ottawa in 2002, or witness here in Alberta in 2006.

So in this relatively unstable environment, we see another unpredicatable edict from the first minister in question - if you're going to run for my job, leave my cabinet. Or I'll fire you from my cabinet.

After the first shock wore off, I had come to accept the decision, to some degree with resignation, much like people like Dr. Lyle Oberg. I don't think I would have called it good, or for the best, but I had come to accept. That said, not a lot of people are accepting it. My phone has been ringing off the hook and my inbox stuffed full with others who are genuinely pissed off about it, not to mention how this decision will actually manifest itself past June 1 and into the leadership race itself. Not to mention the actual length of this race, and how tiring it will be - not just on the candidates and leadership organizations (all of whom can take it I'm sure) but on the government, the media and the public. This story will get old and boring, not quickly, but I fear by December we may all be sick of stories about the leadership - the process stories of how a leadership campaign works, the stories of growing up in [insert Alberta town or city here] as a young [insert candidate name here], the "new" visions for Alberta.

But just think, by December there will still be some 14 months left. At least Chretien's good bye had some real fire in the summer 2002 (ah, the sweet summer of 2002, the civil war in the Liberal Party of Canada, how I miss you - oh wait, I can see a new civil war) and then the coronation of Paul Martin was simply so boring as to not even merit press coverage. Jim Dinning's lead isn't that far ahead, so there will be some coverage.

On the whole, I don't know if the decision to kick out candidates from cabinet 19 months before the actual vote is good or bad governance or politics. My instincts say it isn't, at least in so far as I would not have done it. But, I do think that it is connected to the poor decision of Klein to make public (or even privately admit) his choice to have the 2004 election be his last. If he hadn't, no one would need to be kicked out before October 2007 and no one save possibly Jim Dinning would be so actively organizing for a leadership bid. That might lead us to the conclusion that under such circumstances Dinning would sew up the bid in the time between 2004 and 2007. Possibly. But the decision by the Premier now I think might have just guaranteed a Dinning win. But I am still hoping for a horse race.

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