Phendrana Drifts

With the beginning of November comes the home stretch of the PC leadership campaign. There are five weeks left, six more forums, a bunch more interviews, and possibly another Oberg skeleton. Still, I'm left some disheartened by the process. Why? Well it isn't structural - I love the one member, one vote leadership concept (delegated conventions may produce more drama and publicity, but the other process is considered so much more legitimate and produces largely electable leaders) and it isn't because the stakes are too low - because they are indeed very high.

I think it is because no one else seems to take too much interest, and the campaigns themselves are not creating much waves. I always knew that the leadership race itself would be policy-light, the vast majority of leadership races are. Look at the federal Liberal race on right now, or the most recent federal Conservative race. Personality always trumps policy and ideas in internal races, and I fear they are doing so in general elections as well.

Still, I'm feeling like we're stuck in a political rut of apathy, and this race is simply reinforcing it. Normally I would bring out my trusty scapegoat of the media (and it fits here as well) but there must be other reasons as well. So why does no one care about this leadership selection? Maybe it is just me. But I don't think so, and neither does a Calgary Herald/Edmonton Journal article this morning - it suggests this apathetic and ho-hum race is reinforcing a Dinning lead, which I certainly could have guessed. It fails to mention it also reinforces the party outsider focused campaign of Ted Morton. As both have ins to talking to potential voters via either the party infrastructure of the Alberta PC's or the federal CPC's respectively, the others are faced to deal within the media, which is hazardous, or drumming up support outside of a political structure.

I don't think it is necessarily the candidates' fault - most have released detailed policy and are challenging some common assumptions. All are actively campaigning, and from what I can tell, all are campaigning relatively well. With the exception of Oberg's stupid stunt, I can think of no direct mistakes, certainly different styles, but no certain mistakes. Another thing that is reinforcing Dinning's (and to a degree Morton's) campaign. I still think this is a race, and one that could be won by anybody, but to some measure everybody except Dinning and Morton needed luck in addition to sound policy, good organization and hard work.

Hopefully the forums will shake some Albertans and media out of their laziness, and will shake the party into realizing this is a life-or-death race for the party that is depending on a contest rather than a coronation. But I can't emphasize enough, it may also just be me.

Some rumours making the rounds in my world:

"Anybody but Dinning" and "Anybody but Morton" teams are actively forming and trying to influence the race. This might help explain some of the longevity Oberg has, as he is a natural candidate for both those categories.
"Anybody but Oberg" appears to be just another name for "Jim Dinning", but before the stupid stunt it may have had room to grow - still I'm not counting out Oberg (I made that mistake before, and I feel dumb for making it) and as long as he is in, the possibility of a "Anybody but Oberg" camp forming around Jim, Dave, Mark, Ed or Ted still exists.
Someone will drop before the November 6 deadline - I think it is just a rumour, unless Victor is thinking seriously about it. The big six don't seem to be slowing down at all, or taken any major blows, and Gary will stick to the end. Of course, the poll of today shows that not much has changed (from a pollster's perspective) in a month - and six or seven candidates needed something to change.
Jim Dinning is planning for what happens on December 3 (beyond just policy) - I hope not, because win or lose that is a big mistake. That said, he's never said anything publicly about the subject (the exact opposite in fact) and never anything to me other than about his plans for the next general election (he plans on winning).

1 Comments:

At 12:17 AM, Anonymous said…

BLAME THE MEDIA

In Calgary, the media actually figure people want to know what conservative candidates are saying and promising. They also want a fight so they have been drumming up the 3 local candidates and ignoring everyone else. They've particularly focused on Lyle because they know he's always up for a cage fight. To Conservatives here it seems like those are the only choices.

In Edmonton, you have the Journal tabloid telling everybody how useless all of these candidates are, how Jim has already won it and how we should just embrace socialism. The Sun tries to give some perspectives but more often than not just copies the Calgary articles. That is my personal take on this discrepancy. Either Edmonton gets up off its rear end to showcase those who represent the forgotten half of the province or they will have nobody but themselves to blame if none of the Norris, Stelmach names get mentioned.

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