Phendrana Drifts

I remember listening to a Progressive Conservative campaign official explain to the CBC that his party had rules surrounding a leadership review in the event of defeat in the general election. He was obviously frustrated by the reporter's transparent tactics to get him to say something about the Ed Stelmach's chances in the event of Kevin Taft becoming Premier. I have to admit, I was really just doing my best not to laugh. The interview finally ended with the answer that in the event that Premier Stelmach was successful on election day there would be a vote on a leadership race at the second AGM following the election and that the Premier and his team were focused on winning the trust of Albertans for another term.

A week later Premier Stelmach won a landslide. And I never thought about the reporter's weird questions until recently.

Legend has it that Ralph Klein's review vote after his first election was done by voice on the floor - I honestly can't say as I was 13 and not present. I was present for the last two, in 2002 and the last acrimonious one in 2006, and neither was conducted from the floor. I will however be absent for the one in Red Deer in November. But I can't help wondering how it will go and what will happen.

I have a prediction, but admittedly my political spidey-sense has taken a severe hit since the second week of the 2008 Alberta election (at which time I was predicting 62 Tory seats when all sorts and sundry were suggesting I was far too positive on the PC's chances - by the fourth week most knew it would be a blowout). I thought the CPC would do better in Quebec. I thought Dave Taylor would win the Liberal leadership race. I thought Bob Rae would win the other Liberal Leadership race. I thought Diane Colley-Urquart would win in Calgary-Glenmore. So with those caveats, I am going to predict that Premier Stelmach will win his vote next weekend, and by a margin of around 80%.

Why? Two reasons. First, the partisan crowd attending the AGM will not be predisposed to voting for a leadership race - it doesn't serve their best interests. And second, the powers that are aligning against Stelmach pale in comparison to those coming to bat for the Premier.

Looking at the first reason, those who typically shell out the $400 plus to go to Tory AGM are highly partisan people, individuals with a history with the PC party and will be thinking principally of what works best for that party and its caucus when they cast their vote. This certainly does not describe all who will attend and I do not mean to paint all attendees with that brush. Also, I do not want to paint the picture of an army of mindless automatons - I think the vote will be cast with a great deal of thought. Unlike 2006, Premier Stelmach is very much intending to serve as party leader during the next election - and that is a big change. Delegates in 2006 needed more than a sort of ennui about Ralph Klein's leadership, and the announcement that he wasn't going to run in 2008 was it. It made sense to around 45% of delegates that if Klein wasn't going to run, let's get it over with and give the new girl or guy a chance to put forward a vision before going to the polls.

If the PCs reject Premier Stelmach next weekend and throw the government into a leadership race the risks grow - especially if the new leader fails to capture the imagination of the Alberta public, media and influential class. The government's plan, such as it is, will be thrown into doubt not just until a new leader comes to power but quite possibly until the next election. Perhaps even more importantly, if you assume the amount of money that gets donated to political ends in Alberta is a zero sum game then a leadership race will divide the available donations even further, with most continuing to go to the Conservative Party of Canada, some going to the Wildrose Alliance, a smattering elsewhere and the rest divided among the leadership candidates, and very little going to main party. The entry fee to enter the leadership race may mitigate that, but running a leadership race with 100,000 plus votes is an expensive proposition as well. Finally, if you're a sitting PC MLA, a likely candidate or a devoted campaign worker for the expected 2012 election you have to be thinking that Ed Stelmach has to be a serious liability before you would surrender a bunch of political energy towards a leadership race. Dumping Ed Stelmach risks leaving the PC party exhausted come election time. All of these considerations beyond the ordinary pettiness of politics has to be rolling through the minds of delegates in Red Deer and I think the likely conclusion for most will be to cast a ballot in support of the Premier.

Also, and it may seem remote now after Calgary-Glenmore, but Ed Stelmach destroyed the competition in the last election. There are thousands of parents of the PC victory in March 2008 but a lot of that credit has to go to the leader. He's a winner, and that pronouncement may be more a sign of the dearth of political energy in the province than the political acumen of Ed Stelmach, all the same he's a guy who got it done last time out at the polls. And that also has to be weighing on the mind of delegates in Red Deer.

My second reason, the circumstances and "sides" of the vote being unevenly aligned for rather than against the Premier is something that Ralph Klein did not have on his side in 2006. Those who have come out publicly in support of the Premier include both the powerful and unlikely: Peter Lougheed, Rod Love, Jim Dinning and the person who I believe has the most of all to gain from a Stelmach loss, Dr. Ted Morton.

Against the Premier we have a much more motley and distant cast of characters, Ernie Isley, Alan Hallman and the only major name of the bunch beyond the obvious people from other parties, former Premier Ralph Klein. Admittedly, Klein is not actually encouraging delegates to cast out Premier Stelmach, but his comments to the media are a big reason that the media continues to harbour the idea that the Premier might lose in Red Deer.

Of course, I could be wrong. I'm fairly peeved about Bill 44, enough so that I'd have trouble if I were a delegate reconciling my feelings about that stupid piece of legislation and my thoughts towards the government. And I know more than enough people peeved about our decent back into deficit budgeting. Interesting times. But in Alberta politics since the ascendancy of Earnest Manning if you had bet only on the most boring outcomes of all political events in our province you would be rich. And metaphorically, that's what I am doing - the most boring outcome of next weekend will be Premier Stelmach winning a healthy endorsement and the real showdown will be in 2012 with the Premier placing his record of returning to surpluses from deficit (and he better accomplish this, because if he can't I don't know what he presents to the electorate) against the dynamism of Danielle Smith and whatever it is that the Liberals and New Democrats try and bring to the table.

Labels: alberta politics

7 Comments:

At 4:58 PM, Chris LaBossiere said…

Good post Duncan, and you are almost certainly right.

But that being said, if my party continues to put it's head in the sand on issues like Bill 44, and continues to waffle around on the leadership front, I would rather see us go through a painful rebirth in vision. Even if that means a possible loss of stature in the leg.

We shall see. I'll be standing on the convention floor honing my Spidey senses if you will, trying to measure the direction and velocity of the "winds of change".
At 12:36 PM, Ken Chapman said…

If it is any comfort Duncan I feel the Premier will get between 75-80%support for all the reasons you state.

However, even if the party spanks or dumps him, why would he quit until his caucus revolted. He was elected Premier by the citizens of Alberta, precious few but nonetheless. Just because there may be a move by the far right to force him out of the party leadership is another thing. It is a convention, not a law, that the Premier is the leader of the winning party in a general election.

I'm betting Ed will stay on as Premier no matter what the delegates of the Party say. Caucus revolts may happen but no big deal. New leadership is inside baseball now and the constitutional diversion his staying on will keep the coupe artists confused for some time to come.

We are a long way from an election. If the PCs want a leadership contest before the next election fine. Albertan don't need the interim politicla uncertainty because of that. I say Ed stays on until and unless he gets below 50% support by party delegates.
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