Phendrana Drifts

The ancient Chinese curse always seemed to be an illusion here in Alberta, the closer we got to compelling and genuinely interesting times in provincial (or even provincially-local federal) politics, in reality the further away we got. Whether it was the minor drop in PC support in 2004, the PC leadership race in 2006 or the election in 2008, the closer we traveled towards change in Alberta politics the more like a mirage it seemed. Well to take the metaphor a little further we may be a lot closer to the oasis, or we may be at yet another hiccup in Alberta politics that has no bearing on the grand political story of our province.

I'm referring to the ongoing rise of the Wildrose Alliance here in Alberta. A recent poll places them in first place province-wide, and there is no denying they have a level of momentum an opposition party hasn't enjoyed until the Liberals in 1993 or beyond. Other bloggers have covered the specifics of the poll - daveberta, Brian Dell and Ken Chapman - and I don't want to rehash the territory that they've covered.

But there is the distinct chance that now we have entered a period of distinct (and dare I say refreshing) uncertainty. I have no idea what will happen - these numbers show Albertans are willing to entertain the end of the PC dynasty but given the utter absence of any solid or realistic policy on the part of the Wildrose Alliance (Brian Dell's commentary aside - he has great policy ideas, but aren't reflected in the terrible Alliance policy book) this likely represents little more than an expression of Albertans dissatisfaction with the status quo. But what could happen? Without copping out and saying anything could happen (which is certainly correct - but also would mean I wouldn't have a post to write) I'll speculate on six possibilities for the next two years culminating in the spring 2012 election.

1. Hi, I'm Alberta politics and I'm boring. Nothing happens, at least not in the grand sense. The Progressive Conservatives under Premier Stelmach win the election in 2012 after a period of relatively responsible governing with a couple of gems to show off as accomplishments. As many know I'm a fan of Stelmach's governing from Dec. '06 to Apr. '08 - and I can see him returning to those kinds of accomplishments - steady progress on a series of fronts. The thing is, I think he's been governing this way since April 2008 as well, just with a certain lack of accomplishments to point to. Fast forward to 2012 the message has to be a return to prosperity but with Premier Stelmach being the one at the helm when we left prosperity that message will ring much more hollow than when Premier Klein was able to paint the Getty administration as the bad guy in the scenario rather than Stelmach who will have no bad guy in his tale. That said, I still think this is the most likely of the six, just not the certainty as before.

2. My Premier is hotter than your Premier. Danielle Smith has captured all sorts of momentum and interest, and strangely without really saying a whole lot that would define her. Which is ok, because I still can't tell you what Dr. Kevin Taft stood for other than it being time for something and he was leader of the official opposition for five years. But in the next two years she could build a party of good candidates, good policy, good organization and good fundraising that is able to compete for the crown. The Wildrose Alliance wins in 2012 by stealing the majority of disaffected PC voters, a lot like Reform took federal PC voters in 1993. The thing is... I don't think Alberta is that right-wing. Wildrose has a long way to go before they resemble anything centrist and they don't appear to have any desire to go that way. So if this scenario is to come true one of two things will have to happen: either I have to be wrong about how right-wing Alberta is or the Wildrose Alliance will have to moderate, moderate, moderate. The problem is I'm often wrong. Imagine a provincial government further to the social and fiscal right than the present government provincially or federally. As it stands, I think this is the second most likely scenario.

3. The King is dead. Long live the King! The Alberta PCs are masters of reinvention and they could do it again. I think it would be risky. I think it would be a sign party insiders and other people of power believe the end is nigh for the dynasty and only by removing the leader can they hope to compete in 2012. This scenario isn't exclusive of all the other scenarios mind you, but for sake of projecting to the 2012 election this would assume the reinvented PC party wins the 2012 election and continues on as government. The natural question would be who leads this party and does the party swing right, left or other... I could speculate on the names of the new leader or premier but that would just serve to stir the pot. Would they go right or left - well that depends, who is more likely to vote for this revitalized PC party who presently wouldn't - someone from the 35% Wildrose camp or someone from the 25% Liberal? I think the answer is from the right.

4. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need. The "progressives" of Alberta unite. And the 23 of them go out and find another 150,000 ordinary Albertans to join them. This option, like the other three described above, is well underway. Renew Alberta launches their website tomorrow and there are plenty of centrists and lefties that are fairly disappointed with the status quo. As the Tories and WAP split the right and the Liberals and NDP are either sentenced to further obscurity or actually endorse a unified progressive option this becomes a possibility. Enough so to form government? Well there is a reason I put it as fourth. Although a leader like Dave Bronconnier or a Anne McLellan could change that.

5. If Bob Rae once became Premier of Ontario, I guess Premier Swann is possible... The division among the right and two years of disastrous governing by the Tories leads to... a Liberal government. Similar to the scenario above except using one of the mainstream parties from Alberta's left - but the thing is I think it is a virtual impossibility. I include it here partly that this scenario will drive some of the actions of Alberta's political actors and remains a major barrier to the united progressives scenario coming true. Such a scenario would mean the Liberals would have to accomplish those same four objectives I listed for the Wildrose, good candidates, good policy, good organization and good fundraising. And the thing is, they've failed at all four of those goals for nearly a century.

6. Minority. Determining the likelihood of this in any real terms involves math and I'm not in the mood. But given our reluctance to leave first past the post and the way the Alberta elections and geographic distribution of votes goes down I think this isn't as likely as majority government. The list of considerations would all be post-2012 but I can certainly see the Tories and/or WAP propping up the other in power before I see many other scenarios. In the event the Tories lose government there will be a difficult period of self-reflection for that party and one which I believe will kill the party itself, which leads me to my final prediction.

Regardless of which of the six scenarios I've laid out you think is most likely, I do think this all paints a specific picture for the current governing party - this is win or die. The PC party is not likely to take opposition well, and unless a left of centre party is the one that takes the Premier's chair it is hard to imagine the money and volunteers that focus their efforts on the PC party staying past 2012. Much like the PC / Liberal supporters in Saskatchewan or the Social Credit / right-of-centre people in British Columbia or the Social Credit supporters in the Alberta of old, the PCs will take a mortal blow if scenario #2 or maybe most variants of scenario #6 as well a good chance under the united progressive government or a Liberal government the PCs will sit in opposition, and without the levers of power and the promise of government they will discover that their political muscle without those goodies have atrophied to the point of obsolescence and that 40 years in power has meant they stand for shockingly little beyond relatively good governance and staying in power. Of course, if they win, then this becomes another chapter that is almost boilerplate in our political history - Alberta political dynasty briefly threatened by crazies, government comes up with new shiny thing, crazies go away, victory is had and spoils divided, repeat.

Labels: alberta politics

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