Phendrana Drifts

Premier Ed Stelmach unveiled his hotly anticipated cabinet shuffle this afternoon - although I haven't decided whether "hotly" is hyperbole or not... my world certainly watched with interest and I hit refresh a couple of times on my browser. Typically I describe these events as inside ball, mostly of interest only to a few inside the Legislature and to those who have something at stake within an individual department or attached to an individual MLA. This one was different as it was seen as the response to the declining poll numbers of the governing party and the sort of ennui that seems to have taken over government. In an environment where the mainstream and social media of Alberta (and perhaps the population in general, who knows...) seem to be clamoring for change, how was does this "compassionate" cabinet shuffle breakdown?

Biggest Surprise
This is not as large a shuffle as I was expecting and was made out to be - only three Ministers sent to the backbench. I was suggesting as many as 10 - and fewer departments too. The size of the cabinet remains at 24 and there is even now one more Parliamentary Assistant. 20 Ministers got to keep a portfolio, and half got to keep the same job.

I think the biggest surprise on an individual was that Doug Griffiths wasn't made a minister, and in fact was turfed from being a Parliamentary Assistant. He was put on Treasury Board, and I can't speak too much on whether that is a lateral move or a demotion. I believe Doug Griffiths is a phenomenal talent and it is a shame he wasn't promoted. The same could be said of Parliamentary Assistants Diana McQueen and Fred Horne - all three have the talent to be fantastic ministers.

For me personally I was most surprised that Doug Horner wasn't moved because that was all the scuttlebutt of yesterday and I work in post-secondary education - in fact, he got a nice promotion as Deputy Premier and Minister Liaison for the Canadian Armed Forces. Does that mean he is the Provincial Minister of Defence?

Change
By the numbers, this cabinet retains 20 of 23 members (excluding the Premier) - or 87% of its old membership. It leaves 10 in the same portfolio.

Like I said above, this cabinet has more in common with the last cabinet than it has changes. Our new cabinet ministers are Frank Oberle, the past Party Whip and MLA for Peace River; Jonathan Denis from Calgary-Egmont; and Thomas Lukaszuk, MLA for Edmonton-Castle-Downs. Ten ministers were also shuffled around, with Ted Morton to Finance, Ron Liepert to Energy and Gene Zwozdesky to Health likely to be seen as the most prominent. Both Denis and Lukaszuk were Parliamentary Assistants, so with the two spots they free up, the loss of Doug Griffiths and David Xiao from the PA ranks and the creation of a new Parliamentary Assistant we have five new PAs: Greg Weadick, Teresa Woo-Paw, Cal Dallas, Fred Horne and Jeff Johnson.

George Groeneveld, Janis Tarchuk and Fred Lindsay were the only cabinet ministers to lose their jobs entirely, and David Xiao and Doug Griffiths as mentioned above lose their spots as Parliamentary Assistants. I think it is important to note that Groeneveld and Lindsay were two of the seven MLAs who backed Stelmach as leader from the start - I don't know if this portends anything, just a good-to-know fact.

Winners and Losers
Hard to say - and partly I do not know how to weigh certain ministries vis-a-vis their old ones. Like was Liepert promoted or demoted? I would say that was lateral. Also, I do not know how to value Parliamentary Assistanceships vis-a-vis Treasury Board etc. But some today were winners:

Doug Horner: By virtue of adding Deputy Premier to his business card, he grows in stock and is now second in order of precedence. Definitely a gain.

Gene Zwozdesky: He has touched the portfolio before as Assistant Minister of Health but the promotion to the big and difficult portfolio has to be seen as a win.

Ted Morton: From all accounts he performed admirably in Sustainable Resource Development and is given a top visible job as Finance, although it remains to be seen if the true power still lies with Lloyd Snelgrove.

Lindsay Blackett: By virtue of staying in his job after what I consider to be a terrible performance as Minister of Culture and Community Spirit, Blackett gets to call today a win.

New ministers: Oberle, Denis and Lukaszuk are the obvious winners as newly minted Ministers.

Staff in the Legislature: Obviously the Premier wasn't lying when he said it was important to take into account the political staffers who work for Ministers, as the majority will at worst have to move desks and learn new files.

The losers:

Groeneveld, Tarchuk and Lindsay: These three stop being honourable when the new cabinet is sworn in - at least on letterhead. Media suggests Groeneveld and Lindsay got moved out as they may not be running next election and are comfortable making room for others, and as for Tarchuk, her time in Children's Services was not good.

Griffiths, McQueen and Horne: Honestly I thought all three of these individuals would have been made Ministers.

Evans? Knight?: I have no idea how they see their moves, perhaps they don't see them as demotions. Evans in International and Intergovernmental Relations makes sense if she will get the London job the media speculated on and Knight should do fine in Sustainable Resource Development.

Geography
The new Ministers come from Peace River, Calgary and Edmonton and the departing Ministers come from rural-ish Alberta (although Tarchuk might be identified as a Calgary-area MLA as might Groeneveld) tipping the balance slightly north and slightly urban. Geography is a fairly touchy subject in cabinet-making, but I suspect this is considered a wash more or less. Although on second thought, with the Deputy Premier now coming from the Edmonton bedroom community area as well, maybe Calgary loses a little.

Diversity
No new women, one woman dropped from cabinet, and all six who lose or gain ministerial positions are white - disappointing the gender balance wasn't maintained or improved, but it is a shame political life isn't more welcoming for women in general.

Leftover Questions
Will Morton and Snelgrove have the same relationship as Iris Evans did with Lloyd? Who between those two will actually control what is spent in this province, or can raise taxes?

Will the appointment of Morton be enough to prove to fiscal and social conservatives that the PCs are the best small-c conservative option in the province?

Will Ron Liepert fix whatever was broken in Energy? Will Gene Zwozdesky fix whatever was broken in Health?

I guess Lukaszuk's private members bill to stop floor-crossing will die unless he finds another MLA to pick it up, as he will stop being a backbencher.

Will the losers of this shuffle flee to the Wildrose? Will voters?

Labels: alberta politics

Yesterday's defection of Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth sent a lovely ripple through Alberta's political scene yesterday and ensured the first day back for many in the Legislature and beyond was at least interesting. As many have noted, including the Premier's office, this is not a total surprise but has certainly set the tone for the new year and it likely is not the tone Premier Ed Stelmach was hoping for.

I for one would not be shocked if this was only the beginning of a few more defections, as there are bound to be hurt egos in the upcoming cabinet shuffle and government revenues force a difficult budget to be tabled in February. If this is going to be a semi-regular occurrence, it will bring up a few questions around floor crossing, indeed questioning the motives and legitimacy of Forsyth and Anderson's decision has already begun. You can read Chris Labossiere's take here, the quote from the Airdrie-Chestermere PC Association's here as well as Brian Mason calling for a by-election at iNews 880.

And they are important questions to ask, although admittedly when a Progressive Conservative or a New Democrat does it, it rings a little hollow. The Tories certainly didn't force Stan Woloshyn, Gene Zwozdesky or Julius Yanikowsky to run in a by-election when they crossed the floor, and if a Tory went over to the Mason's New Democrats we would be far more concerned about the impending end of the world to worry ourselves over a by-election. But in a electoral atmosphere dominated by partisan parties and especially their leaders it is a fair statement that most people vote for the party or the leader, and the MLA or MP are kind of a secondary thought. So if a member changes parties mid-stream, shouldn't they go back to the polls? I don't think so.

I am fan of floor crossing - for selfish and less selfish reasons. Selfishly, I think they are cool. They liven things up. They make politics more interesting and they offer a glimpse of personalities and undercurrents that focusing exclusively on leaders does not. It helps keep the system dynamic and responsive, and while it can heavily politicize government as well , it does make for interesting reading on Monday morning. I've blogged a little about it before, but clearly I'm a fan.

Less selfishly, it curbs the power of the executive in our system to dominate the legislative branch. And to be clear, the executive in the form of the cabinet and especially the first minister dominates our system. Rob Anderson reflected on his time in the PC caucus and said "elected MLAs generally have little, if any, real input into the decisions that impact the lives of their constituents," but neat part of floor crossing is that it proves that wrong. Making the decision he has Anderson has guaranteed that his actions will have an impact on the decision-making process and the minds of unelected advisors to the Premier.

The voters in Calgary-Fish Creek and Airdrie-Chestermere will get their chance to pass judgment on yesterday's floor crossing soon enough, 2012 if not sooner. And if the opening week of 2010 is any indication, a lot will happen between now and then.

Postscript: Paul Stanway from Premier Stelmach's office said "It's not that unexpected," when asked about the poll numbers that put the Wildrose Alliance way ahead last month. On the defections yesterday he said "We've known this was going to happen." Umm... kind of odd sound bytes, don't you think? Not the quotes expected from the Premier or from the office of the leader of the dominant party in Alberta. You would think if the Premier's office can see it coming, they might do something about it...

Labels: alberta politics

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